Originally Posted by
CALFO
I think this analysis may be flawed. Was the 7954 pilot awarded the position in a vacancy bid or via a displacement? My guess is that it's a displacement. I think the real seniority number of pilots bidding in is at about 7000. I expect it will get closer to 8000 within a year, but right now that's what you need in order to be awarded captain on the 737.
I think you're right,and there are a lot of 76T FOs that are going to be getting bumps this fall, and virtually all of them can hold guppy Captain in their base.
I think these displacements are going to keep the open vacancy bids down slightly for guppy Captain, making it artificially more senior on vacancy bids. That's what's happening already, and its going to increase.
I'd be surprised in a year from now if 8,000 isn't about what it takes to hold a left seat somewhere.
The combined airline now has about 5,000 Captain positions and 7,000 FO positions (obviously because of widebody airplanes). Obviously, if everyone bid as high as they could, no one below 5,000 would be a Captain.
Good analysis CALFO. I agree.