IMO I doubt he would be stuck as a lifer FO at any of the big 3 because of the amount of movement that is going to take place. It will be even better if you are willing to relocate to or commute to a junior base. A lot of people speculate that upgrades are going to be dropping to 10 years or less at any of the 3. Upgrades on the 190 at Airways are still at around 1 year I believe.