I'm curious why AA would reject a DOH integration with fences...

With the East/West battle aside, I'm wondering what AA pilots feel is the danger in a DOH SLI with fences protecting pre-merger positions...

I posted this on another site, but thought I would post it here as well...

Btw, if any AA pilot could provide specific numbers, such as total Captain positions system wide and total number of pilots actually flying the line, I think many on our side would like to know... Anyway, here it is:

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While I certainly don't have the actual retirement numbers for AA, I do have them for US. The retirement numbers posted on APC seem to reflect a close approximation for US, so I'm assuming they are somewhere in the ballpark for AA.

The question becomes what will the seniority lists look like in 5-10 years once the retirements are removed. I'm sure the Merger committee will very diligently dissect this aspect and see exactly what effect something like a DOH merge would have on the list after the fences come down.

Without having the EXACT numbers, I will use the numbers available and can certainly give it an educated guess... And I will use a 8 year fence (starting in Jan. 2014, ending in Dec. 2021) as an example using the retirement numbers found on APC for AA.

US currently has 4,203 pilots flying the line. Of those 1,902 are Captain positions.

I'm estimating AA has around 9,000 line pilots with around 4,000 Captain positions. Probably less than 4,000 due to the large number of widebodies requiring an IRO. But I'll stick with nice round numbers.

APC lists US retirements from 2014 through 2021 as 1,831. That's almost 50% of our group.

AA retirements for the same period is listed as 2,353.

So in 2021 when the fence comes down, Basically all our current FO's will be a Captain already. And most of our FO's in 2021 will have been hired after the fence went up, meaning they will all be junior to ALL the current pilots at AA. They pose no threat to current seniority on your property.

For AA in 2021, the better part of half of your Captain positions will have been filled with current AA FO's. And your remaining FO's will most likely be senior to all our FO's at that time. So the rest of your Captain positions will mostly go to current AA FO's anyway.

After the fence falls, there will be some that will bid to other bases to be close to their home, but that will go for both sides. And with no bump, no flush, no Captain should be worried about being displaced.

Anyway, I realize this isn't exact, but my bet it's a guess within the ballpark. The bottom line is we do have some very senior pilots on our side, but by the time the fence will fall, they will mostly be gone leaving more junior pilots in their place. I would bet the most senior pilots of the combined airline will heavily weigh towards the pre-merger AA side after the fence falls...

And of course this isn't even considering the effect of bringing all the 787's and A350's on line...