Originally Posted by
gzsg
Alpha
How many initial training cycles do you estimate for each retirement?
If one 777A retires is there one A330A will to take their place?
And that A330A vacancy any ER captain will to take the slot?
And that ER captain slot any MD88A willing to move up? And and and...
Again I estimate 8 to 10 initial training events for each retirement. We will have several years where more than 800 pilots will retire. There is no way to minimize the impact of pay banding. IMO
I'm not advocating pay banding, but I really have a problem with your 1500 pilot speculation. The first of several problems I see with your theory is assuming every one of those 800 retirements in a year will be 777/747 captains. Numerically impossible since there are only 544 777/747 captains. As an example, in the five years since the merger over 1000 pilots have retired and I've only moved up 300 numbers. A lot of NB captains and FOs will be a part of that 800+ number in those peak years 2021-2024 so the training cascade is far less for each retirement than you propose .
I agree with alfa (btw, welcome back!) that we need hard data, not wild a** speculation about this issue.