At the current rate of 10 upgrades per month for the past year it's still an 8+ year upgrade. There are 1,253 pilots on the seniority list between the most junior FO and the most junior captain. At 10 upgrades per month that's 125 months or about 10.5 years for someone hired today to upgrade.

Sure there's hiring now and it's not as stagnant was it was in '08-'09 but unless the rate of upgrades picks up new hires are still looking at 8+ year upgrades.