321 pilots that were hired in 2007 still remain on the seniority list as of June 2014, and it is going to take a LONG time to upgrade that group of pilots IMO as we are only going to get smaller in the near future. The days of upgrading 40 per month are over and will not be returning anytime soon.

I know there is some attrition now and hopefully it will get better this fall, but even at 40 upgrades per month (which won't happen) it will take 8 months to move through the 2007 block of pilots. Being realistic, the number of upgrades will AT BEST be 8-12 per month, but that movement will be sporadic and will not be consistent. So, assuming 12 upgrades per month, every month beginning today, it will take just over 26 months to get through all of the pilots hired in 2007. That assumes we lose no aircraft and we keep the current amount of flying (block hours) we already have. If we lose the IAD CRJ base and those aircraft are not utilized elsewhere, all the attrition we will gain in 2014 is effectively wiped out.

The biggest variable(s) that can break this massive log jam are 20+ growth aircraft (new) or a huge increase in block hours from Delta, and let's be honest, those variables aren't exactly around the corner.

If you were hired in the first half of 2007 upgrading is a realistic hope within the next 24 months, if you were hired after 6/2007 it's a completely different ball game.