Jerry,
First of all, thank you for the reply PM. I agree that we must stand strong AGAINST concessions for C2015. In this time of record profits and industry health, I don't believe we should have to "trade" anything for contract improvements either.
Secondly, ya gotta stop using the previous six months of this year's retirements as a "data point" to "cost future retirements."
It just doesn't hold water.
I mentioned in a previous post, you then replied, it IS NOT a linear curve, especially based on only the previous six months. Mandatory retirements are listed below:
2014: 62
2015: 170
2016: 229
2017: 287
2018: 416
2019: 511
2020: 613
With what you've stated, we should have 4576 retirements between 2014 & 2020? I wish,
but that's not a realistic number.
As someone else posted, it normally averages the mandatory retirements, PLUS 1% of the seniority list. (~120) With 62 mandatory retirements this year, plus ~120 pilots, I expect to see ~182 pilot retirements for 2014. Approximately 71 remaining retirements for 2014. (Average six/month for remainder of the year, might be slightly low.) Next year, 170 mandatory retirements, plus 120 pilots lends to the possibility of 290 (2015) pilot retirements.
It's all a guess until it's in the past, but having our reps take a doubled number of retirements to the negotiating committee calling it "costed data" is doing nobody any good.
Thanks for your concern, at your seniority level. (I mean that.)
Kyle