there is no crystal ball...
tone,
You pose many good questions, and honestly no one, even AA mgt, really has the real answer! Here's what I can definitely tell you about AA--we have upped our recalls to 40/month, and are scheduled to continue on that pace through the end of the year. Since we have no new equipment and won't be netting any gained aircraft probably for a long time (we will be getting new 737-800's in a few years, but retiring old MD-80s at the same time) we are really only hiring to offset actual retirements, which will be fairly heavy for the next few years. We are getting ready to have an ammendable contract next year, so the fact that the company is recalling is evidence that they really need recalls because they would not be throwing us a bone during this time otherwise...
As for age 65 passing, it's really anyone's guess how that would affect recalls at AA. They say it could take up to 2 years after passage to actually see the rule implemented and age 60 retirements actually stop being mandatory. I would guess that you would see recalls slow or even stop temporarily at that point, but probably not completely stop. Surveys at AA say that most folks nearing age 60 don't have a burning desire to continue to 65, but you never really know until you offer it to them.
As for your hopes to get on with AA, unless you are one of our 2,500 plus furloughees already, most speculate that there won't be any new hires until at least 2009, and that's if age 65 does NOT go through. If that timing works for you, great, but if qualified now I'd have all my other apps out way before thinking about a job at American.
Hope this helps...