Regionals actually, on a revenue per seat mile, do not contribute as much as mainline. This was particularly the problem in the early 2000s when the largest RJ was 50 seats. The ONLY way we contribute is with the sort of costs (salaries) we have experienced forever. Traditionally, larger aircraft (at all carriers) have meant higher rates. We are now seeing management offer (and get) the same rate for more seats (larger aircraft). Mainline would NEVER allow that to happen in the long term.
I expect mainline would be more than willing to end the regional model even with some minimal give back. Why...security. Think about our brothers who are flowing to AA. No flow back. A down turn and they are on the street. Just like I will be if we shrink fast. What do we ALL want?
SECURITY
PAY
QOL
Simple as that. And by the way, the ONLY way we get ANY of that long term is to see this segment of the industry consolidated with mainline! The faster--generally -- the better (not saying there isn't going to be "some" pain but the very large majority will be better off)...
The stagnation we've experienced "should" end. Retirements are mandatory (unless we see an age 67 rule, or a fly until you can't hold a medical rule (both very remotely possible and only a 2-3 stop gap). Plus, MOST mainline guys DON'T want to work until they drop dead. Pension losses have forced some to do so but...really, a lot of guys I know are more than happy to be gone at 65 (and many have left earlier).
Remember what I said. WE DON'T HAVE TO FIGHT MANAGEMENT TO SOLVE MANAGEMENT'S PROBLEMS. We should waste NO negotiating capital on:
1. Shiny new airplanes management needs to give us anyway (at the same rate) to remain competitive. My opinion is we should NEVER accept a new larger aircraft at our current rates. BAD, BAD, BAD idea!
2. We don't need to solve management's hiring crisis. They knew it was coming. They were part of the 1500 hour rules change and the FAR117 change. They can cry now but they KNEW this was coming (and in my opinion, THEIR WAGE DECISIONS HAVE CREATED THIS PROBLEM!). WE have been stuck only because supply has until the last year significantly outstripped demand. They know this --- HENCE THE 10 YEAR DURATION ON NO INCREASED PAY. Give me a break. Show me ANY industry where employees would permit that. THEY WANT IT BECAUSE THEY KNOW THAT IS THE ONLY WAY THEY SURVIVE. And management wants to survive, just like we want to survive (but THEY don't have the saleable skill WE do)...
3. This segment of the industry needs either unified representation (meaning no deleterious PSA type contracts should be accepted by ALPA -- not going to happen) OR we need to be willing to hold out and force the supply side issue (including a willingness to shrink, close down, and move if necessary).
4. I think we need to watch out for management "solutions" which develop ab initio or pipelines from flight schools directly to mainlines that somehow by-pass regional (without seniority based solutions that put a current 121 pilot before ANY new flight school or (hate to say it) military retiree). On the latter, I have friends who have come here to get current, get into the business, and are moving on (or waiting).
The way we cause our own harm is to perpetuate this broken system by ACCEPTING long term, economically poor contracts. The sooner this segment is cold, dead, and buried the sooner we will return to a profession that is equitably paid!!
BTW...remember, regional management IS afraid. Deep down inside, they are afraid!!! Why? --- because they KNOW this is coming! They are desperate to continue to exist!! They know the wages they will not be able to continue offering the wages they are paying! They know that THEY are being squeezed by mainline ...and in the end, very soon...they know their existence will END. Think about it. Consolidation REMOVES inefficiency and redundancy. Multiple managements (as seen from mainline) will rapidly COST too much and their "skills" will NOT be needed. WE have the skills majors need (although they will suck up "some" operational management elements)... but...many in management (maybe our leadership) will be left without a chair as the music stops!!!
So, stand firm. And let's engage for the end game with our mainline brothers!
(and no, I'm NOT a mainline guy!)