I work for a well-known state university with a 141 program that is restricted ATP capable. Our student pipeline has grown over the past two to three years. We now have more students than we have had since 2008, but not nearly as many as we did a couple of decades ago. I'm not sure of the exact number if you were to subtract the foreigners, but we are issuing 10-20 commercial certs every semester.

Timeline from zero to 1500 hours training/flying full-time while attaining your bachelor's degree is likely 5 - 6 years right now. Most guys will be hired at their university as a CFI sometime in their graduating (4th) year. They will be at 300 TT. To get 1000 hours with 200 XC as a CFI will require at LEAST one to two years. At some operations, it takes more like three.

For that reason, the training programs are reeling more from a loss of instructors than from a change in student flow. Many instructors leave in order to attain the 1000/200 or 1500/500 (depending on your educational path) required to get their ATPs before their test expires in July 2016. Unless you're in a sun zone, it's difficult to build more than 50 flight hours per month as a CFI. Many scheduled 135 ops or similar offer 70 - 80 hours per month, not to mention the hours are cross-country time. As a result, our school has turned over a huge percentage of our instructors over the last six months.

Sure, you can get 1500 hours in three to four years and skip the four-year degree. But if you want a bachelor's and to qualify for the restricted ATP, you're going to need more time.