As they say, timing is everything. I had a good friend who didn't do SOS, got passed over several times, took the 20 year bonus, and eventually separated under "involuntary separation" without having to pay back a single penny. At that time (around 10 years ago), stop loss was in effect and pilots and other critical AFSCs were able stay in for 20 years and retire as an O-3. I'm sure you remember those days; strange times for sure!
Ham-fisted losers tend to hide out at the staff levels and would not touch a cockpit with a 10' pole. They were a waste of flight suits IMO. A new AFSC for journeyman pilot-for-life would resolve any pilot shortages in the future!