Originally Posted by scottm

Good question. Most people define it based on how it effects them, which is a problem when pilot union leaders aren't going to feel the effects for some time, and management may never feel adverse effects.

Most of us would say Great Lakes has a pilot shortage, but economists would say they don't, as they haven't raised their pay. Economists look at effects for evidence of a cause. The declining number of pilots available is increasing profits at most airlines, by forcing capacity discipline, elimination of less or non-profitable operations, and ending price wars. So there are the "right" number of pilots for this industry now, as long as it is economically healthy, which it is. For the past decade+, the industry has been unhealthy because of an endless supply of ever cheaper workers, allowing a downward spiral of quality and prices, where nobody could hold their prices long enough to make a profit.