Originally Posted by
Imapilot2
off apc.
delta 12020 pilots current on delta net, retire next ten 4027= 33% not half
united 12500 pilots retire next ten 4245 = 33 % not half
based of required retire, even with some early that only effects the last couple years and not by that much
historically it was a 30 yr career. hire at 32 retire at 60. now the hire age is a little higher but so is the retire at 65.... so we retire 1/3 in 1/3 of an average career. nothing out of the norm here..... apple apple
I agree with your logic above but remember those are the mandatory retirement numbers - a lot of guys never make it to 65.
We could easily add a 5% attrition rate to your numbers above. Still not 50% but probably closer to 40% than 33%.
Also I think it is safe to assume that the number of guys who don't make it to 65 will be larger than the number who did not make it to 60. Hell, 5 more years for things to go wrong.
Scoop