Originally Posted by
CBreezy
No. Net jobs means total number employed. They do not take into consideration a massive retirement boom over the next 15-20 years...
Sure they do. Look
here-
Projections say tens of thousands of pilots will be retiring.
No doubt retirements will be large in the next ten years, but I have no reason to think the Bureau of Labor Statistics does not consider them. That's what they do over there, they research and tally up changes in the domestic labor force.
... A net change of 4000 less pilots is not significant when compared to those changes...
It is if (4000) is the net change after subtracting all the retiring workers from the total, and I think they did.
...Also, I don't even trust those numbers they are quoting. What are their sources?
Well I'll look into that some more, but this is a fully-funded and authorized bureau of the US government with a stated mission of finding out and publishing facts and analyses about labor. I do not take their work lightly. They hire qualified analysts to work in non-partisan roles and cannot legally bring any personal or political bias to bear on what they publish, and doing so would constitute fraud which is punishable by federal law. They look like a pretty good source to me therefore. That's not to say they know everything all the time and are above making a mistake, but wholesale bias and incompetence is not what one expects from such a group.
..They claim there are only 46,000 airline pilot jobs in the country? The big 3 airlines have somewhere around 37,000 pilots ALONE.
No. The way I read their article they claim there were 66,400 airline pilots, copilots and engineers working in the US in 2012. I took the time to add up what APC claims is the number of active domestic airline pilots/copilots using our front page numbers (see below), and I get 83,834. The latter is 2014 data, which partly explains the discrepancy. And I suspect the APC total it is a little high, but not much. I think the number is about 80,000. So yes, BLS is a bit low at 66,400 airline pilots, but not out of the park.
... That doesn't include regionals, southwest, Fedex, UPS, etc...
The BLS figure does, and so does mine using the current APC data.
...According to Delta, new widebody orders will be for growth, not replacement. It takes pilots to fly those. I did math. Now you show me yours.
Sure, and that is what I have for now. I hope this helps.