You hear some senior guys talk about what to expect like it should be the same now as when they were hired. They talk about how "they" went thru periods of no hiring but still progressed very nicely. Nothing could be further from the truth.

You do the math.

In the old days they would hire 250-500 a year, paused 1-3 years then the hiring resumed. # of pilots went from 3000 to about 4600.

Now it's hire 50 for a year then 2 years of no hiring. pilots now about 4300.


Fleet might be stable now. I anticipate a slight improvement. But never like the "old" days.