For Melissa…who asked "can I stay home and make it work at FedEx…" and the resulting speculation on the FedEx numbers, I thought I'd share some thoughts.

Take a closer look at the numbers of cockpits FedEx has indicated they plan on filling over the next few years.

To get a glimpse of the big picture, you need to look at both the current projects, past projections, and past hard data points.

Looking back to May of 2010, Here was the actual fleet breakdown in narrowbody/widebody numbers. These numbers come from postings (bids) those years using the number of airframes in service…not heavy mx, storage, etc.
May 2010 66 NB 215 WB 281 total
May 2011 65 NB 219 WB 284 total
May 2012 64 NB 217 WB 281 total
May 2013 62 NB 215 WB 277 total
May 2014 62 NB 206 WB 268 total
In actual numbers we’ve removed 4 NB and 9 WB aircraft in 4 years-- 13 hulls

What is perhaps more disturbing is the trend downward in fleet growth. Here were the numbers PROJECTED for May 2014 in past bids….
2013 71NB 210 WB 281 total
2012 71 NB 216 WB 287 total

So…in real numbers we are down 9 NB from past projections and 10 WBs from projections just 2 years ago. In other words, every revision since 2010 has continued to reduce the planned number of hulls in service with the greatest cut coming from the WB side of the fleet.

Projections are listed below for 2015-2017…from the latest bid:
2015 80 NB 195 WB 275 total
2016 92 NB 187 WB 279 total
2017 93 NB 185 WB 278 total

Therefore, in the next 3 years we can see growth of 31 NB while 21 WB are removed from service. The fleet will go from about 76.8% WB in 2014 to 66.6% WB in 2017. While not perfectly scientific a plan of 10% longer to upgrade or hold a certain seniority level in the widebody fleet at Fedex would seem to be a reasonable expectation. One bidding in the bottom 10% of the WB fleet should not expect to see a major improvement in relative seniority for 3-5 years as the fleet rapidly shrinks.

Based on these numbers, our fleet in 4 years will be slightly larger than it is now, but still smaller than it was in 2010, and certainly smaller than in 2008 before the financial crisis.

Based on these numbers and pending retirements, without major organic growth I predict slow and steady hiring of about 100/year at FedEx, with career progression including a longer period in the NB side of operations than many pilots experienced in the 1995-2002 period. Seniority advancement will pale in comparison to the Legacies for several years, but if FedEx has always been your target a slow, steady period of hiring may be about to commence. However, do not base your career expectations on the experiences of those hired before you, as the company is in the middle of a significant mode shift that is stressing efficiency and reducing the number of widebody aircraft. It ain’t your daddy’s FedEx…..

Here are the FedEx (potential) retirement numbers…pilots turning 65. Some may leave early for any number of reasons:
2014: 69
2015: 110
2016: 114
2017: 163
2018: 177
2019: 144
2020: 178
2021: 206
2022: 211
2023: 222
2024: 229
2025: 218
2026: 241
2027: 209
2028: 203
2029: 186

That's 1823 between now (some of 2014 have already left) and 2024. That's about 43% of the crew force. So in 10 years, if nobody retired, the fleet stayed exactly the same, you'd be at 57%. I've been here 12.5 years now and I sit around 67% overall, so the rate of advancement you have would be a bit higher than what I've experienced. Subtract the 10% less wide body aircraft its probably a wash to hold WB captain. Even with the reduction our ratio of WB to NB is much higher than most pax carriers. Look at the projections at AA and DAL to make a more apples to apples comparison of your relative seniority in each company and what it will get you seat and dollar wise.