That's turns out not to be the case, but the picture still isn't very pretty. If you run the numbers by age, the 340 or so folks at the bottom of the list with 8 years or less will have a shot at captain depending on age.

If you assume most junior captain at around 1500 (approximate right now with 300+ bypassers), about 25 people on the list are too old right now to have a shot at captain assuming everyone retires right at 65. The average age for retirement right now has been about 63, so they may still get a shot. Those at the top of the 340 will get a shot at the 11-year point.

If you assume most junior captain at around 1200 (no bypassers at all), about 50 people on the list are too old right now to have a shot at captain...again, assuming everyone retires exactly at 65. Still a chance with lower average retirement age. Those at the top of the 340 will get a shot at the 13 year point.

The numbers come straight from an Excel spreadsheet sorted by the seniority list's age column.

B2P