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Old 09-02-2014 | 11:10 AM
  #7171  
CaptainNameless
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Joined: Feb 2009
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From: emb-145 ca
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Originally Posted by Wynncore
It has been the hot talk in the crew room...but any of us with sense know this is not going to happen for a huge number of reasons, but the primary reasons being:

1. There are enough applicants for DL, UA and AA for the next 3-5 years in Captains alone from all the regionals...not to mention the FOs...the overwhelming majority of major new hire classes have been filled with military guys/gals to date. Regional attrition to the majors hasn't even scratched the surface yet of it's full potential.

2. What makes one regional different or "better" than the other? Why would a major choose one regional for it's "flow" over another? What if United went to GoJet and proposed a flow, or chose the L-ASA group over L-XJT's pilot group etc etc? The only "flows" that will be set up will be at the wholly owned level and they'll be nothing but a bait and switch written in "iron clad" language that can be undone with the simple pull of a string, or "per the company's discretion."

Now, will a "flow" be set up within 5-10 years after this proposed "shortage" takes full affect as so many claim? Perhaps, but the only way to get to a major right now is to earn it.
The issue isn't do the majors have enough applicants. The issue is do they want the regional lift staffed or will they just cancel flights when the time comes. Attrition at XJT will begin to hit in the 100/month range soon. What are their options to slow that? If they don't need the flights, then no retention ideas will be proposed. At 100 pilots/month, things will get very ugly very quickly. Will be fun to watch.