Boeing and Airbus do not agree with you. They are VERY worried about a shortage. That is why Boeing was very big at EAA with the rollout of their new pilot training system via Jeppesen, to train pilots for the non-American airlines (it does not train guys thru the ATP, so that is why they are targeting non-American airlines).

Just talked to a new-hire who came from Horizon. I also thought that Horizon was doing good for staffing. She said the staffing situation was critical there-very short.

Many people do not see the shortage, no surprise there.

For guys at regionals that want to leave, and are having trouble getting to a higher paying job, I recommend looking overseas. There are LOTS of high paying jobs begging for pilots.

My airline (Atlas) has reduced their minimums four times in the last 4 years. Why would they do that, if there are massive numbers of excess pilots?

My prediction for the future is that the majors will hire guys off the street, with 0 pilot experience (or very little, like only a PPL), or they will either loan money to people to complete their training, or they will guarantee the loans for people to complete their training.