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Old 09-09-2014 | 06:08 PM
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Originally Posted by Roadkill
Yeah, that was my point, I didn't make it too clear I guess. The fact that the last guy to bid into SLC73 was hired 7Jul14, and only 12 guys below him 73, means there weren't any other guys who COULD have bid it--all new guys are jet-locked for a year. Basically it went to the very bottom and only 4 of the 15 total spots were filled.

This is a pretty good illustration that it takes WIDEBODY spots to get the entire LIST to move up--even though I thought all those SLC 73nB spots looked great, they're basically at the bottom of the list, and no one wanted them (or DTW73, LAX73, etc...). All the guys junior enough to want 73 or 320 or 88 or 717 spots have already got one where they want it, now. More NB FO spots doesn't help anyone currently on the list out, just opens spots for new hires.

MOREOVER, the guys at the TOP of those NB lists, who would have to bid out and UP in order for me to see any movement, aren't getting enough opportunity to do so... thus, the lists are staying stagnant except at the very bottom. I haven't analyzed where to movement up and into the 110 capt spots came from, whether it all got fully backfilled or not, but the effect was diluted enough to only drive me up a single person in the 73 anywhere. I guess that makes sense with 33 categories x 2 pilot positions = 66 categories. The top 20 cats or so wouldn't see any movement, but that still leaves 46 categories perhaps to spread around just 110 Capt spots, so 1-3 folks moving in any one category makes sense.
Seems like a reasonable analysis to me. The real driver is going to be when they finally need to replace captains that retire, especially off WB's. Anything they can do to shave a few numbers here and there, any little concession they can get to reduce staffing a little throughout the list, they will go for, I suppose.