Originally Posted by saturn

It really all depends on what your % of seniority will be when it comes to upgrade times. 60% seniority is the common % for the most Jr captain at most airlines to account for union positions, training positions, management, ect. The major variables to account for are pilot group size and estimated attrition. With the flows at CPZ, calculating attrition becomes a little easier and predictable. It was also stated that they plan to hire 440 pilots from now through the end of next year, so the pilot group size could reach about 700-720.

From other posts: 478 (current pilots) - 200 (170 flows and 30 other attrition est by Dec'15) = 278. If you're a new hire, add your place in line from the 440 to be hired. Divide by 700-720 and get your estimated percent by the end of 2015. Anyone 60% or less should very well be able upgrade, but perhaps even a bit higher due to FOs not having upgrade minimums.

People starting class by the end of the year will be sub 60% of the pilot group. My math says 12 month upgrade feasible for the first 100ish guys hired of the 440 target. Biggest curveball will be hiring 440 by the end of next year.