G, Remeber this . . .
Originally Posted by
C11DCA
Joe, no choke yet or anytime soon sad to say.
G
and rember this quote from Ken the ALPA Scope-SME which I posted in 12/2012 that you didn't think was likely anytime before 2017.
Besides that, regardless of how the Company allocates its 255 hulls within our new restrictions the 50-seat RJ fleet is dying. With that and no other action by the Company UAX is eventually headed to a new maximum RJ fleet of 255. Contrast that with today’s UAX RJ fleet of over 500. If the Company Mainline fleet does not grow at all over the next 6 years the UAX fleet will still shrink by almost 40% just through 50-seat RJ retirements.
Now here is a quote from Skywest's quarterly report:
In the second half of 2014, SkyWest expects 56 of its unprofitable 50-seat aircraft contracts will naturally expire and the aircraft will be returned to lessors. SkyWest also expects an additional 101 unprofitable 50-seat aircraft contracts will naturally expire and be removed from service by December 31, 2015.
same goes for Republic.
The 70/76 fleet will end 2014 like this:
Q400 28
EMB-700 38
CRJ-700 115
EMB-175 32
Tot 213
Outstanding orders for EMB-175 to be used by UAX not yet delivered but for delivery in 2015 and 2016:
Republic 50
Skywest 40
So we have at least 303 70/76 seaters which is going to force retirement of CRJ-700 or Q400 or both to keep the fleet limited to 255 in the meantime more than 100 CRJs are being retired in the next 2 years so . . . drum roll please . . .
By the end of 2016 the UAX fleet will see a minimum net reduction of 50 hulls and that is just on the retirements that have already been announced. Any additional retirements of 50 seaters lowers the numbers.
Plus, UAL has announced several routes returning to mainline from UAX.
Plus, from the "other forum" it appears certain that we are keeping our 767 fleet for the near future as well as additional 757s. The 757s will run Hawaii and free up 73s to take on more UAX routes.
So . . . in summary.
UAX fleet reducing from 550ish airframes to less than 450 by end of 2016.
UAX fleet capped at 255 airframes while 50 seaters all but disappear by 2020.
UAL taking back mainline flying from UAX already being announced.
I'm not sure how folks want to measure their lives whether thy are Glass Half Empty folks or Glass Half Full folks, but to me this is a huge win. It is taking time, but without a question UAX is shrinking with or without a new narrow body order.
Oh and Coach67 . . . I'm not feeling any apology is forthcoming soon. . .
Originally Posted by
Coach67
Don't want your dinner ... but I will be looking forward to the apology on the forum. Don't lecture me on the importance of Scope. It's the reason I voted NO!
By the way ... I read that from KC ... it is the same sales job that the MEC did on the JCBA. He and the NC negotiated it. Did you notice it was only the positives and none of the negatives of the scope? Surely a balanced unbiased analysis that you purport to continually aspire to achieve would point out the shortcomings as well ... no?