Originally Posted by thump

Maybe another 15-20 are yet to arrive for AA, and 50 for United. There are 47 options from the AA order and another 50 from the United order. Not that options mean anything unless a new CPA is signed.

Approx 30 Q400s will leave the fleet and there are about 40 E145s in service for DL that will expire at the end of 2016. We also have 6 or so 190s coming out of service in Jan 2016, but I think staffing for those is more like 3 planes worth of pilots that would be displaced.

Attrition seems to hold steady around 30 pilots per month across all 3 certificates.

@ the original poster: The new contract is not about to happen. The current negotiating team thinks 5-7 months, but after 7 years... I'm not holding my breath.

As bad as people say it is on the forums, I think RAH is tolerable living in base. And that might be the catch. If you want EWR, you need to be offered an S5 class or a Q400 class. While it isn't 100% certain, if the United E175s come to the S5 certificate, you will be ULTRA senior within a year or two since FOs can't change between certificates. All the FOs senior to you will likely be stuck on other certificates. That all said, it's possible that the United aircraft will go to Republic and you could be stuck flying for Delta out of LGA instead of flying United out of EWR. That is a worst case scenario and I think the more likely scenario would be that the planes will go to S5.

If it were me, I'd go to RAH, tell them you want an S5 class, and don't complain when you get here (or at least complain too much). You might not be able to hold EWR right away, but worst case would be that you are in another NYC airport for a few months (and not commuting by air).

As for Commutair, it's not a bad option either, but if it were me, I'd go RAH with the knowledge that there are some problems here.