Bill Swelbar is making last decade's argument.

ALPA's President is correct. The math is very simple. Take the number of (pilots flying 50 seat jets + expat pilots + the handful coming from the military) - the number of pilots getting hired at the majors = surplus. How many very qualified candidates are still waiting on calls from Delta, United, American, Southwest, etc ... . ?

The shortage is at airlines which do not pay competitive wages. They need to get in the game and pay, or fold up their chairs and go home.

What Bill Swelbar misses (and he calls himself a consultant ) is unit cost analysis. As the costs of providing air travel have increased (gate leases, fuel, capital expenses to buy airplanes, management salaries) it makes more economic sense to spread those costs over the greatest number of seats. Dividing those costs among more paying passengers results in lower unit costs.

Fifteen years ago the pendulum had swung towards "trip costs" and yes, it costs less to launch a 50 seater than a 737. The World has now changed and Swelbar missed it. Airline network managers have discovered capacity discipline. Part of this trend is mergers have resulted in larger networks which can drive larger passenger loads by consolidating service. Today passengers chase available seats instead of airlines chasing marginal passengers with empty airplanes.

If an airline can fill a 737 with passengers which used to fly on 4 or 5, 50 seat RJ, flights - then that is what is happening. It had nothing to do with ALPA bargaining. The trend towards fewer larger flights is resulting in a surplus of pilots.

I believe the surplus will be absorbed. There will be jobs for those who want them (absent a real Ebola problem, ISIS, or some other threat).

But, we have a pay shortage, not a pilot shortage.