Originally Posted by
Rsv4lyfe
Just saw the upgrade training sheet. About 250 upgrades planned through November, about 250 FO's on property right now. I think it's safe to say anyone starting class in November onwards will not be upgrading by years end 2015. Maybe mid 2016? Just a WAG.
With a November class date, I calculate that being at 50% or less seniority in company by Nov '15. That's not including any bypassing. Explain to me how that's not an upgrade capable position? I get the 250 number quickly: 150 flows + 100 new CAs for AA flying = 250 new CAs. However, I think that's overly simplistic.
I guess the better question is how large will the pilot group be by Nov '15? 600, 650, 700 pilots?? Sept14-Summer15 the training department plans to hire 440. Most airline staffing has the most JR CA 55%-60% seniority. Even a few months ago the most Jr CA at Compass was 59%. So point being, the most JR FO on property before Sept hiring started will be about 46% in Nov'15 given the most conservative of estimates (460 seniority # - 150 flows - 30 other attrition = 280 ÷ 600 = 46%, or ÷ 700 = 40%). November's most Jr new hire would be seniority #360 ÷ 600 = 60%, or ÷ 700 = 51%. Still, not accounting for bypasses.