Originally Posted by
saturn
With a November class date, I calculate that being at 50% or less seniority in company by Nov '15. That's not including any bypassing. Explain to me how that's not an upgrade capable position? I get the 250 number quickly: 150 flows + 100 new CAs for AA flying = 250 new CAs. However, I think that's overly simplistic.
I guess the better question is how large will the pilot group be by Nov '15? 600, 650, 700 pilots?? Sept14-Summer15 the training department plans to hire 440. Most airline staffing has the most JR CA 55%-60% seniority. Even a few months ago the most Jr CA at Compass was 59%. So point being, the most JR FO on property before Sept hiring started will be about 46% in Nov'15 given the most conservative of estimates (460 seniority # - 150 flows - 30 other attrition = 280 ÷ 600 = 46%, or ÷ 700 = 40%). November's most Jr new hire would be seniority #360 ÷ 600 = 60%, or ÷ 700 = 51%. Still, not accounting for bypasses.
I guess he's trying to say that there are about 480 pilots on property now-- 240ish of them are captains. 150 will flow next year, so that leaves 100 captains on property (currently, without flow rights). 2015 end of the year seniority list will have about 750 pilots, so thats about 375 captains, 100 of which are on property now. 250 upgrades for next year should account for every FO on property right now.
If you're a November hire, you might upgrade by 2016 but I wouldn't count on it. I think the last of the captains for next year have already started training. I think November hires are looking at early/mid 2016, which is still pretty stellar for a regional given the current circumstances. YMMV.