Originally Posted by eaglefly

Well, the beginning mostly states the obvious. From then on, it's clearly a sympathetic piece to management (few "analysts" are supporters of organized labor). There is accuracy in the statement that APA is in a tough spot, but that's mostly their own doing. Absent any meaningful changes to Parker's "initial" proposal, APA leadership would be committing seppuku by simply folding and sending that proposal out for vote. They'd enrage a much too large percentage of their pilots and nullify their own validity to Parker and their pilots, especially after their posture to both sides. Neither side really wants arbitration, so that means both really want an out that gives both a victory, so to speak (at least the appearance of one) in that they were each able to compromise to achieve an agreement. I agree with Keay in that this will occur.

Based on the two "wants" by the sides, there will be some relatively soft alterations. The two bookends of pay and scope will go largely unchanged and I agree with Keay that profit-sharing will remain off the table, just as scope is. Perhaps a one-time "signing bonus" to goose the agreement by giving the pilots at least something out of this years present and almost certain future profits ?

Whatever the final deal, it is certain to leave those on the extreme hardcore end of the rejection bell curve disappointed (a DAL contract), but will validate that the tack of the opposite end of the bell (the Steve Miller "take the money and run" crowd) was a poor plan that needlessly left value on the table. I get the idea Keay probably came to that conclusion after a discussion with Parker who is more then happy to use sympathetic media sources to assist in managing pilots expectations.

Originally Posted by PurpleTurtle

The APA is good, but Jerry Glass is better. Sadly, the deal will happen sooner than later, IMHO.

Glass will continue to back away from "high-viz" things he never intended to get (scope, 2-hour call out, and the year extension) and he will continue to get fawning support from both the media and the pilots who can't do complex math (i.e are fixated on pay rates). The pay rates will be front in center in the mind of simpletons, but we will all pay for it twice over in the concessions that are impossible to value (because the company refuses to give us the data). We will get nothing for the 757 replacement, i.e. the AB321, nothing for LOS, Nothing for min calendar day (average calendar day, maybe).

Parker will lock in the cheap costs for years to come, providing his cost advantage over the competition. He will never have to compete on a level field. He is cheap like that. Customers get cheap. Employees get cheap. And Jerry Glass gets luxury, because he can deliver the cheapest employee costs in the industry.

The APA is good but they lost it when they let their judgement be clouded by an inordinate hatred of Horton.

60% membership ratification by the end of January. Welcome to America West Grande, the airline none of us even bothered to apply to.

Yes, we are making $4B profits but nobody remembers so we get an industry trailing contract (if you do the math). Jerry Glass is that good.

Originally Posted by eaglefly

I'm not stating what I think SHOUlD happen (what I personally feel is minimally acceptable), just what likely WILL happen when the dust settles and APA hands us what they hand us. APA has been sending their usual mixed messages and I believe that THEY believe the initial proposal is simply undoable as they cannot both sell that now and maintain credibility (with anyone). Parker IMO is almost as adverse to arbitration as APA and thus both need an out.

Is Keay simply speculating on 15% above DAL rates being the solution to PF or has someone thrown that to him ?

We don't know.

I think "profit-sharing" per se will not occur, but that doesn't mean another form of compensation for its absence like percentage override to DAL or "signing bonuses" will be in its place.......heck, it already IS in its place, just at a minuscule 3% which APA has already said is unacceptable.

I think the APA will produce their usual result just like LBFO I and II, whereby something is negotiated that gives them an acceptable political over-wing exit escape while being just enough that they can hold up and say, "it's the best we can do" and "it provides a better outcome to arbitration". Many will be pi$$ed as usual, but it would likely pass ratification. We must remember that the first LBFO was the lowball of lowball offers and was retched and yet the APA leadership supported it at the roadshows even standing behind the huckster in a $1000 suit selling it to us. It failed, but a significant portion of pilots actually voted for it.

Like the ultimate SLI award, we should also expect a "hybrid" result somewhere in the middle of the two "want" wildcards in the JCBA. Again though, between where we're at now and arbitration, I'll take arbitration without hesitation.