No dog in this hunt, and I fully expect folks to look at my post and ignore it, but having just gone through this process and having spent an inordinate amount of time learning all about the "rules" of the game here's a SWAG at some expectations for your situation.
1) The Nic will play no part because of Judge Silver's decree.
2) The most important factor will be Category and Class.
3) Career Expectations will be moot as both sides will argue 'til they are blue in the face to demonstrate how their sides expectations were better and both sides will have compelling arguments.
4) Longevity will get some weight. The biggest question will be how much this plays a factor in the arbs decision.
When the UAL SLI was going on I looked at the facts and made a post where I gave a range for myself on the new list. The mid-point of that range was 6681. My final number in the award was 6551. Here is the post . . .
Originally Posted by
Sunvox
So any CAL pilots like to gamble? I'll lay 2:1 odds that based on 7563 UAL pilots and 4589 CAL pilots making a list of 12154 . . . .
I will be between 6200 and 7100. This puts me next to a 02/05/1996 hire and I am a 04/01/1996.
WB-CAP UAL(1557)/CAL(741) list numbers 0 to 2298
NB-CAP UAL(997)/CAL(1220) list numbers 2299 to 4515
WB-FO UAL(2384)/CAL(1250) list numbers 4516 to 8149
NB-FO UAL(2625)/CAL(1378) list numbers 8150 to 12154
if it gets sorted DOH I'm 6281 and if it gets sorted relative seniority I get 7087
Status and category - check
Longevity -check
Career Expectations - we agree to disagree, but a draw at best and has never ever ever been used to override status and category in the first part of the list even in USAir's case where arguably they were on the verge of liquidation, and UAL had profit in the last quarter announced before the merger and CAL did not so nah nah my dog's bigger and meaner than your dog.
If someone wants a close guess of how they will end up here are my recommended steps.
1) Make a list of planes and pilots that existed the day the merger was announced at AA/East/West.
2) Create however many categories you think are reasonable based on the payscales in existence at that time: more payscales=more bands at category and class (given the West's top plane is a 757 I would bet on 6 categories: WBC LNBC NBC WBFO LNBFO NBFO)
3) Count the positions at each outfit in each category and merge the lists based on DOH for one run and straight percentage for the other list.
4) Your answer will be somewhere in between the two.
BUT
You will NEVER impact this process with bickering online nor will your ultimate seat and progression change dramatically as a result of the SLI. What will change your life immediately is your JCBA. I realize this is impossible, but the single most important argument you should be having is how much to demand from the JCBA. You have Parker over a barrel that is if you can speak with a unified voice. The opportunity to improve your future dramatically is here right NOW. At UAL we fought bitterly and one side held the JCBA ransom to try and improve their standing and as a result we ended up with a less than ideal JCBA. Don't make our mistake. Write your reps and tell them to fight for the best and quickest JCBA you can get!