Originally Posted by
Sunvox
No dog in this hunt, and I fully expect folks to look at my post and ignore it, but having just gone through this process and having spent an inordinate amount of time learning all about the "rules" of the game here's a SWAG at some expectations for your situation.
1) The Nic will play no part because of Judge Silver's decree.
2) The most important factor will be Category and Class.
3) Career Expectations will be moot as both sides will argue 'til they are blue in the face to demonstrate how their sides expectations were better and both sides will have compelling arguments.
4) Longevity will get some weight. The biggest question will be how much this plays a factor in the arbs decision.
Most of what you have revealed is true for ALPA merger policy. While there "seems" the perception of ALPA policy is fair and equitable that definition carries different meaning than fair and equitable under MB. What I do know is that by having NO standard for seniority that is a NATIONAL principle then all bets are off for "pilot unity". The ALPA "NIC" award promised East pilots LOSS of 15 years longevity and the West chokehold on the "award" is driving a perpetual wedge for anybodies career expectations.
When the UAL SLI was going on I looked at the facts and made a post where I gave a range for myself on the new list. The mid-point of that range was 6681. My final number in the award was 6551. Here is the post . . .
In short you're longevity within a few months carried the day because the method used was more longevity than ratio. I read the award.
If someone wants a close guess of how they will end up here are my recommended steps.
1) Make a list of planes and pilots that existed the day the merger was announced at AA/East/West.
2) Create however many categories you think are reasonable based on the payscales in existence at that time: more payscales=more bands at category and class (given the West's top plane is a 757 I would bet on 6 categories: WBC LNBC NBC WBFO LNBFO NBFO)
3) Count the positions at each outfit in each category and merge the lists based on DOH for one run and straight percentage for the other list.
4) Your answer will be somewhere in between the two.
Here is MY prediction: The West has NO HOPE of getting participant status in the arbitration and the lawsuits will continue.
The APA will be hamstrung by their fear of lawsuits.
The infighting will continue for many years to come while the West pilots tumble into a heightened state of agitation and AAL will have all the the pilots they could ever want to fly their aircraft at competitive rates against the other big three (UAL, DAL and SWA).
AAL grows to drive industry wages down.
BUT
You will NEVER impact this process with bickering online nor will your ultimate seat and progression change dramatically as a result of the SLI. What will change your life immediately is your JCBA. I realize this is impossible, but the single most important argument you should be having is how much to demand from the JCBA. You have Parker over a barrel that is if you can speak with a unified voice. The opportunity to improve your future dramatically is here right NOW. At UAL we fought bitterly and one side held the JCBA ransom to try and improve their standing and as a result we ended up with a less than ideal JCBA. Don't make our mistake. Write your reps and tell them to fight for the best and quickest JCBA you can get!
You are 100% right: YOU REALIZE THIS IS IMPOSSIBLE.
We CAN'T speak with a unified voice.
Best and quickest are antithetical to this group. Logical is NOT and APA trait.
Thanks for the insight.