PBS alone on LAA side will decrease ~1500 jobs, says prior management. So combined probably 2200 less jobs. Sounds like a lot, bit it's really "only" 15%, which is reasonable when compared to other airlines when they realized the "efficiencies" of PBS. This is to operate the same amount of flying.

But when AA is able to realize the synergies of the merger and start closing, probably 2-3 bases in all, another 1500 jobs gone.

IF domestic/international statuses combine, -400 jobs.

I see before their recall rights expire within the next 2 years, 500 or so deferred recalls will return.

So all I all, that's 4600 pilots AA will not need to hire to replace retirements when all this happens gradually.

Let's say I'm overly pessimistic, we'll just call it 3500 then.

So I see hiring starting from later next year come to a halt or to a trickle for 3 years or so.

This is of of course is best case scenario with the economy staying great and no black swan events.