My opinion is kinda midde of the road. It's a fact PBS is more efficient and allows management to do more with less and that kicks in in 2016, I believe. It's why most managements want it and is about to become "industry standard". The combination of International and Domestic would also SEEM to produce efficiencies, but almost certainly less then PBS. If we go to arbitration, then this issue is most likely off the table, so for it to be a contributory factor, we'd have to have a deal outside of arbitration. If it does occur it too would also be in full swing sometime next year.

Combined, they would very likely require less pilots. The question is then based on the retirement schedule would this result in no hiring and little movement ?

That's tough to quantify. In the short term once those factors are implemented, quite possibly. Over the long-term like 10 years as 73 points out, the retirement schedule is too fast and hiring would have to occur unless of course, AA were to shrink or some unforeseen political or economic (frequently they are hand-in-hand) situation would again produce the cyclical impact that this industry has ALWAYS had. If I were to place a bet, I'd say hiring will remain, but be modest in 2015 at say 40/month and then for an undetermined period of time the factors discussed would be an impact, but to what degree is speculation. After a few years though, AA would have to hire and in ever increasing numbers, unless those unforeseen circumstances impact it.

I wouldn't let this concern impact those applying or worried about being furloughed or stagnating at the bottom should a hiccup occur in hiring/movement though.