Originally Posted by Sink r8

I honestly don't know. I would guess that the countries in question are committed to diversifying away from oil, and this only motivates them more. It does take a little bit of their advantage in having very new, fuel-efficient aircraft.

Also, I don't really understand the nature of their advantage in fuel costs in and of itself. Is it greatest when oil is cheap, or expensive? Do they refine enough in-country? Do they tanker fuel a lot?

Then there are economic conditions: since I don't know how much of an advantage they might have in oil/regulatory/labor, I don't know whether they get squeezed proportionately more than others, when economies are bad throughout the world. They're mostly set-up to carry people between Europe and Asia. If Europe is weak, the Euro is weak, Asia is OK, and their own oil revenues are down, I guess they become very, very eager to tap into our market, where the economy would be better, and the $ is going up.

I'm guessing that with a huge amount of orders, weakening local revenues, the ME carriers got bat-$hit crazy, and flood the trans-Atlantic with seats. They haven't shown any restraint in pushing their regulatory and geographic advantages. Until they really start really bleeding their owners' money, they won't stop. I don't know if we can afford to subsidize our international with healthy domestic, faster than they can subsidize their international with diminishing oil revenues. I doubt our BOD would let us try that game anyway.

What I'm really trying to say is: I have no idea.