Originally Posted by
Carl Spackler
I was asked not to share my source and I will honor that. Our reps know the number, but the MEC administration has prohibited them from releasing that data until after the TA is voted in.
As an interesting aside. Georgetg used previously posted data, used some napkin math, and came up with a number that was ridiculously close to what I was shown.
We are agreeing to a global international flying floor (that we don't currently have), that is about 100,000 block hours less than what we are currently flying.
Carl
Ok, if you say so on the 100,000 hour thing. I have no way to verify that.
Based on what I've been able to gather:
Pros:
Our upside is we ensure we are included in growth. Virgin can grow a little bit before we have to, but they already have that and wouldn't have to grow us at all.
I like the idea of a Global Production Balance. I don't really care so much about protecting a specific market as I do about putting a floor on how low they can shrink us without shrinking somebody else. I would like to see the floor be higher, but I'd also like a 50% raise!
We don't currently have a global floor, so your drumbeat about losing 100,000 hours (if that number is right) is IMO apples to oranges...
Maybe I've got it wrong, but you seem to be comparing current international flying hours (which do not have a contractual floor) to a downturn scenario floor. To me it's better to have some floor than none - even if we do want that floor to be higher.
Cons:
You keep mentioning 1.E.3 which it does appear would be traded to achieve the global floor and LHR slot protections. I'm just spit balling, but the strong likelihood (and the entire reason they want the JV to begin with) is that they are not planning to reduce US-LHR flying. If/when there is a downturn, then I see where we are exposing a little of the downside that they could reduce us faster (to a point) than the Virgin side. That would suck if it happens to be sure.
My take:
I'm not advocating for or against this thing as I haven't been able to hear all the discussion of the fine details, nor have I seen any language other than what you posted. I really like the idea of forcing us to participate in growth - the global balance allows that to be WB hours anywhere which might come into play in slot-controlled LHR. The LHR flight requirement soaks up a lot of the current LHR flying protected by 1.E.3, and breaks it out so other UK flying (MAN, LGW, etc) brings us even closer to where we're at with 1.E.3 for US-UK. I do look forward to seeing more details/numbers/explanation.
As to your allegation that C44 or the admin is withholding the data, I've had interactions with several of my reps and they've been very forthcoming about their concerns and impressions about the TA. Any question I've asked of them have received a fairly prompt reply. In an ideal world, we'd all get to be part of every decision, but I expect and appreciate that my reps are doing the due diligence on my behalf.
I disagree with your assertion that they're trying to sneak one by the pilot group, but that's a whole different topic and I don't want to derail the TA conversation.