Originally Posted by CLT Guy

Nobody really knows for sure. Everyones guess is just that...a guess.

If hiring continues as it is right nowIt won't because eventually the staffing goal will be met., the guys in class today will upgrade in 16-20 months or less. If we get more aircraft (some of the options), it will certainly be less.Actually, even if you include all of the options and ENY 700s, my previous post about upgrades still applies. Also, about half of the new hires are prior 121 guys. They all have applications in at the majors and are being hired. Some guys are getting offers to the majors while they are still in class at PSA and leave. There are more FO's leaving each month right now than captains. That will likely continue.FOs leaving has no effect on upgrades

Here are the facts, however....

PSA is continuing to spend a tremendous amount of money on their training program. They spent hundreds of thousands on a new iPad based system where they students receive all of their materials on iPads. That will go into effect in the next couple of months. There is a new Integrated Procedure Trainer that was just purchased and installed a couple of days ago ($1.3million). They have reserved another sim for the next 18 months - bringing the total to 5.5 sims available for at lest the next year and a half. The training building is being expanded, and dozens of new instructors are being hired and trained. I'm not sure how this is applicable to upgrade times.

There is no way that they would do all of this if they expected the hiring and training to slow down anytime soon.The phrase "hire 'til you fire" comes to mind.

Also, right now, 48 CA's per year are offered class dates at American. The number will be adjusted again when US and AA are operating on the same certificate. This number should be increased to roughly 10% of the current pilot total. That number will increase to somewhere around 100-125 per year. That is a decent amount of movement and will allow for shorter upgrade times.