Originally Posted by
Cubdriver
I'm not selling, I'm telling. Those are facts up there, not my personal opinion. If you prefer a recruiter's sales pitch to the facts then be my guest and pitch the sale for them- but you will be factually wrong.
There are dozens, if not hundreds, of variables that you are not mentioning.
Of the ATP's, how many of them are part 121 pilots, and want to be part 121 pilots? How many fly helicopters, or corporate, or part 135, or are in management.
Approximately 10% of a regionals seniority list are management, check airmen, or instructors in most cases. These are non-flying pilots that still have their ATP and medicals.
Also, how many commercial licenses have been issued to people that are not US Citizens and will be going back overseas. At the major flight schools, more than half of the students are non-citizens. In some cases, it is 80%. The number of commercial licenses and CFI's is misleading.
Heck, my CFI was in his late 70's and still had his ATP and current medical. He is obviously not available to go to the airlines, but still instructs on the side. Are you counting him, and the other 65+ year olds in the "Active ATP" lists is they have their medical? Some guys like to fly their small planes for years after they retire from the airlines.