Raw statistics are just that raw. You are working from one end of the concept, completely ignoring details like ATP + live person does not equal potential airline candidate. Working from my end of the concept, I am talking to the very people who do the interviewing and hiring, the field is beyond thin, its almost empty. So you can take the position there are X amount of these flavor pilots so there is no pilot shortage, quick email all the regionals who are offering signing bonuses of ever increasing amounts, and one is offering a retention of sorts(according to the interwebs). Sorry your theory is flawed at some level, I have been a Captain for 10 years, and the experience level of the F/Os I have been flying with has been falling every year. I fly with guys who went from the right seat of a 172 to CRJ, freight dogs are far and few in between. My position while anecdotal is shared by many of my contemporaries. When I was hired, we had few CFI only guys and they were pretty high time CFIIs with lots of MEL dual flown and given. Today that example is the Unicorn of the regional industry. Don't listen to the industry, watch the money, it will tell all. FAAs motto, "To Promote and Regulate"