Originally Posted by
Cubdriver
Supply will outpace demand for pilots for the next ten years like it always has. By a lot.
Fact: there are about 80,000 airline pilot jobs here in the US, based on data culled from APC employer lists.
Fact: There are about 150,000 active ATP pilots around to fill those jobs, based on public FAA airmen data. Active means they are keeping their medicals current.
That's almost a 2:1 excess of current ATP pilots, and we have not dipped into the pipeline which contains thousands of eligible Comms and CFIs.
I don't question your facts, but the flip side of those "facts' is the simple reality that regionals have had trouble filling classes and legacy carriers are seeing a reduction in the average hourly qualifications of their interviewees.
I come from a GA background and still enjoy hanging out at the local airport in Danbury, CT as well as the airport in Waterville, ME. For every airline pilot I know in my area, I know 2 guys with ATPs locally that fly KingAirs, Aerostars, Gulfstreams, etc. Nearly all those guys are in their 40s and 50s with kids and lives that they would not give up to come fly for some regional or major at half their current pay.
Yes, I'm sure there are many ATPs out there, but the number of ATPs that are willing to START a career at the bottom are far, far, far fewer and MAY not be enough. Certainly the reality of regional classes seems to hint that there may be a problem.