All true. The slope of the curve picks up in 3-4 years, but for the next couple its about 100/year. It is definitely getting better EVERYWHERE. It will be interesting to see what shakes out on the calculator or ALPA positive rate re: retirement numbers in January. Not every retiring pilot leaves an FCIF. In fact, it seems most don't. How many really bailed this year? We will know in a month or so...

And for the record, I feel blessed to work here, and I am grateful to have gotten hired here when I did. When I point our numbers and trends, its not a complaint about my situation, but simply an analysis of what is going to happen the NEXT 10 years. I am one of those lucky guys Hoya mentioned, and hit the WB pay rate at year 7. I'll find out tomorrow if I go back on the rate sometime in 2015. I like the crews I fly with, love the international flying, and I've had a blast here. If I could "snap" my fingers and take a new hire along my career slope I think they'd be thrilled. My concern is guys like my old Squadron CC who is here on the bottom of the 757 sitting A reserve. What will life be like for a guy hired here in 2015? How quickly will he/she have options? Looking at the 10 year numbers it may be a little better than I originally thought, but it will not be the 94-96 hiring wave nor the postal wave type advancement. And with the DC-10 and 727 gone, if you hate hub turning there aren't many places to run and hide from that kind of flying anymore. You can (perhaps) join me in HKG as a new hire, but otherwise it looks like 1.5 hour callout on A reserve for a while on the 757. For some folks--that's great. Some guys LIKE the hub turns, especially if you can hold a hometown line. But ANC MD-11, DC-10 or 727 SO day trips, etc are not an escape anymore.