Originally Posted by
CATIII
pretty fair assessment Kingairfun.. I've heard rumors of as many as 400 more for the "expansion" and as few as 200... depends on how much of the 717 II flying is replaced by NEO, and how fast 767's retire.. and are replaced by 321's...
But retirements alone here at HAL won't begin to hit the 20's a year for well over a decade
Yeah the NEO/717 replacement is a good question...
IF we hire only 200 that puts us at 800+ by 2020... Say 60% captain ratio puts us at around 480 Captains total... Factor in
-career FO's,
- those not wanting to do west coast Captain vs. FO widebody international,
-and even only 50 retirements over the next five years
Those junior on the list now should be looking at atleast an outside captain slot or a nice widebody QOL...
If we hire 400ish... Then yeah, we will all have an upgrade opportunity.
But I'd definitely say anyone hired in 2017 will be doing a long sit in the right seat pending a merger etc..