I was wondering how you guys get your figures.

I think we can agree that Fo's upgrade when they reach about 50%-55% of the seniority list.
So if FO xyz got hired early 2014, their seniority number would be about 850-900? let's assume 900 to be conservative.
This person would upgrade when they hit 50% of the seniority list or 900*2=1800.

At 22 pilots/month (assuming it remains the same), it would take 900/22=41 months or 3yrs and 3 months to upgrade.
I don't think this is a reliable way to get the estimate as hiring numbers can change quickly one way or the other.


Another way to do it would be to look at the average number of pilots per plane and assume that FO xyz would upgrade when the fleet number when he/she got hired doubles in size. or 200%.
We have about 16 pilots/planes. (not sure
Based on the delivery schedule found on Spirit.com, we should have received 11 in 2014, and we should get 15 in 2015, 13 in 2016, 11 in 2017, 8 in 2018.
So if FO xyz got hired in early 2014, he would need to see 900/16= 56 aircraft deliveries on the property (since his/her date of hiring) before he upgrades.
according to the delivery schedule, NK should get the 56th aircraft (starting from January 2014) sometime in 2018.
In which case, xyz would indeed have to wait 5ish years to upgrade.

The only reason why I'm skeptical about this method is that it hasn't been true for guys who upgraded recently. Guys/gals who are currently upgrading after 2.5 years got hired in mid 2012. According to planespotters.net, Nk had 44 aircraft in may 2012 and received 21 aircraft between 06/2012 and now. Which is only an increase of 48%.
Fleet number was at 54 in 01/14 and if we go by a 48-50% fleet increase to get an upgrade, it would take somebody hired in January 2014 a fleet number of (54*50%=27)+54=81 aircraft to be in the left seat. 81st aircraft is supposed to arrive in early 2016. So that would mean an upgrade shortly after two years.

So three methods, three different upgrade times. 2 yrs, 3.4 yrs and 5 years. Which is correct? is there another way to figure this out?

Few things to keep in mind:
-Hiring numbers can change.
-Upgrade training as well and I assume there will be a lot of pressure on the training department in the coming years.
-Not certain about the exact amount of pilots we currently have on property.
-I'm sure I overlooked certain points. Please feel free to correct.

I'm not arguing one way or the other. Just curious to see how everybody estimate upgrade times.