Originally Posted by
Dr Pepper
Here is my take.
147 airplanes by the end of 2021.
8 captains per plane roughly
147x8 = 1176 total Captains by end of 2021, we have 1066 listed in flica currently. I'm to lazy to add the total captains we have currently, but we are supposed to be at 80 planes by the end of 2015 so roughly 640 captains. They may staff heavy due to the large number of planes coming but it doesn't seem to me they will need large upgrade classes.
The reason I brought this up initially is because there is so much talk about quick upgrades (both good and bad)
I had a guy telling me a couple of days ago he really wanted to work here because of the quick upgrades. This is being fed to new hires and people at job fairs as well and it is unlikely to be the case for guys getting on now.
Feel free to correct me if I am missing something. I would hate to see guys coming here expecting to see 2.5 yr upgrades and a new contract then being in the right seat for 5 years under our current contract.
I'm wondering if this 16 pilots/aircraft figure will hold. The company is running a little fat IMO, judging by the lack of open time, low average line value, etc... But let's assume 8 captains/Aircraft is correct.
If somebody gets hired today, he/she would be #1066. Latest Captain award went to #620. 1066-620= 446/8= 56 Aircraft from the 65 we already have. So #1066 would upgrade when we have 121 airplanes. According to delivery schedule, the 121th aircraft is supposed to be delivered in early 2019. So that would be a 4 year upgrade.
Another point to note is that a fair amount of people are bypassing. If that remains the case it would go even faster.
If nobody was bypassing, the latest award should have gone to # 1066/2= 533. (620-533)/620= 14% bypass rate. 1066-620=446-14%= 384 . 384/8= 48 aircraft. 48+65= 113th aircraft. so that would be a 3.5 yr upgrade.
And by the way, those UAL rates are ridiculous. Makes me sick.