Originally Posted by
Leroy Smith
If you want to do the math, be sure you are asking the right questions -
YOU (whoever you get hired on with) cannot upgrade until at least 40% of the list has been hired in after you.
If you can see the quick upgrade, you have probably missed it.
Example: If when you get hired at XYZ, they project growing to 1500 pilots on property, they will have to hire at at least 600 more behind you before you can upgrade. You cannot work in the left seat without someone in the right. And once the word gets around that the quick upgrade has played out, what is the draw to get the meat in the seats? What gets the 600 below you in the door? There are not that many new entrants to the industry. What will get pilots to jump from ABC to XYZ? There is a reason this career is often likened to a Ponzi scheme.
I know, I know. This time is different.
To the OP: ACA or Skyway, definitely.
Very very well said!!! I often wonder how people overlook this fact, when there's no longer an upgrade to be had mathematically, the flow of new-hires stops in this climate. So many current 4, 5, 7 year FOs leave their current employers taking a paycut for the first few years to occupy the right seat there too.