Originally Posted by
El10
Which will hit the market when? When UCH ordered the 900ERs the 321neoLR was not an option it was the 900er, 800, or 320. Boeing and Airbus have always had a issue with selling current products once they start manufacturing the new replacements. They have to keep the production line moving seamlessly from one aircraft generation to another. So thats when buyers can get better deals which probably was the case with the 900er order. Add in that financing levels are very cheap right now you can see the pricing power of this capital expense. A none price today or a future of lots of unknowns with rising forward curves.
Now lets look at the used market for the 757. The used value of the 757 is going down everyday. The longer you hold on to them the less value they have. So either you sell them for something or hold on to them knowing you will get nothing. Allegiant's right down this past month on the 757 fleet reflects this. By the time we retire the rest of the fleet of 757s my guess is most will not enter the used market and be used for parts only.
The A321 has been an option since 1994. The A321Neo was launched December 2010. First delivery planned in 2016.
The UCH -900er/Max 9 order had more to do with the legacy CAL all Boeing philosophy as well as some big discounts due to the 787 delays compensation. (my opinion)
But now that UCH (CAL management) has been exposed to the Airbus narrowbodies and seen how well they perform (fleet plan extension now planned thru 2025 and beyond) hopefully they will get some of the A321Neo for the Hawaii and international 757 replacements in due time, especially if the reports of the Max9 field performance issues are true. The -900er already suffers as compared to the 321. The MAX vs NEO only exacerbates this metric.
All good things eventually come to an end. The 757's is in its waning years. Is there a direct replacement? No, but the current Boeing and Airbus offerings are able to do 90%+ of the missions with a lot less operational expenses. At some point, acquisition costs of new aircraft are outweighed by the upkeep and operational expenses of older airframes.
DC