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Old 01-13-2015 | 07:54 AM
  #175709  
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Bucking Bar
Can't abide NAI
 
Joined: Jun 2007
Posts: 12,078
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From: Douglas Aerospace post production Flight Test & Work Around Engineering bulletin dissembler
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The historical problem with oil is that it has always been too cheap & never repaid it's investors without market manipulation.

Before the Seven Sisters, we had the Texas Railroad Commission to limit not only rail, but pipeline transport from East Texas. These efforts were followed by OPEC, who really gained market relevance in 1973 and who since has been a geopolitical cartel, working for not only oil interests, but political self-interest. Arguably, OPEC has had such great influence that the United States has sprung into action at their behest, removing cartel violators and threats to their heads of State (I will loop back around to that point).

The historical, inflation adjusted to 2010, price of oil was $23.68 per barrel in the US and $24.58 on the World market. If a snapshot is taken post-1970's, after US production was exceeded by the middle east, the price goes to $34.77 for US supplies and $37.93 per barrel globally.

Those prices sound ridiculous today, but when George W. Bush took office the price was $35.00 a barrel.

I have two concerns as they apply to our business. First, oil is a predictor for other Global economic activity in times of peace. Oil prices are decreasing as much on reduced demand, as supply. In the United States there is a concomitant reduction in oil based tax revenues which negatively affects those users and generator of jobs. Second, history tells us someone will do something to constrict supply and among those getting killed in the market are nuclear-armed former superpowers.

As for OPEC, some are getting into a new business, running airlines. Their new East Texas is the post-2008 & 2010 European Open Skies shake out which is resulting in consolidation among the bigger and stronger players there, just as it did in the United States following our deregulation. These players know how to lobby and know the hallways of power better than most US citizens.

Given what we are up against I am amazed at the success of ALPA-PAC. It's the best money I've ever spent.