Originally Posted by
gloopy
The fact is they have had the tech for pilotless airliners for a long time. There is nothing magical about remote controlled airplanes. The problem is they can't do it for anywhere near the same cost at anywhere near the same level of safety.
The software side of it (to get it to that point) doesn't exist yet. But even if it were here today, and free, the hardware side of engineering that much redundancy into every single system would be financially crushing. They could build one tomorrow. But it will be a very long time before its economically feasable to start introducing them into the 121 system in any significant numbers, if at all.
They haven't, and don't have the tech today. Single-pilot operations (I'm not predicting pilot-less) require the plane to be able to fly to an alternate and land, without pilot inputs. Current airliners can't do this, maybe some of the newest ones could with some improvements. The next generation certainly will be capable, that's why NASA gives it 15 years, for the next generation of airliner to be in use.
But it isn't the airplanes that are the difficult part, it is the runways. There are not many auto-land runways in the world today, only a few at the biggest airports. They are very expensive to set up and operate, and they would be needed in great numbers and many at remote and difficult alternate airports. The technology that would greatly simplify auto-land systems is coming, will easily be here within 15 years, but it has not been sitting on the shelf.
I've worked in industrial automation for over 30 years, the stuff I'm seeing on factory floors is unbelievable, right out of sci-fi, and it is advancing fast. A vision system that can see the runway surface, airport layout, approach terrain, air and ground traffic, is not far off. They are already offering them for self-driving cars and trucks. Things like that are getting rapidly cheaper and more reliable, multiple systems could be mounted on airliners without much weight or expense.
ATC needs huge upgrades to handle all this, 15 years of technical advances will allow huge upgrades. 15 years is a long time, 20 years is a very long time, especially in technology. But it is way too soon for someone entering this profession today.