I wouldn't think it would take 5.5 years, but probably a pretty close and realistic guess for guys getting on now.

5 years takes us to 2020 and 130 aircraft

Figure 8.5 (estimate) CAs per plane (staffing always higher on the CA side vs FO side) 130 airplanes at 8.5 is 1105. Add in say 100 retirements and FO lifers bypassing upgrade, medical leave etc...gives us 1205. Pilots getting hired now are going to be close, if not already in the pipeline, for that 1205 number. 5 years. Now if we have a mass exodus that number will change...all estimates.

I figure I will need aprox 90 aircraft on property to see an upgrade and I have been here 15 months. 90 aircraft takes us to a mid to late 2016 upgrade date. So, im planning on 3 years, maybe a little less. But life happens when making plans, its the airline industry and its littered with the dashed hopes of upgrades.