Originally Posted by
snippercr
It will eventually but just not in any of our time here at eagle. While a lot of people claim management only looks at THIS quarter, this whole agreement process has showed that they really have a long term plan they want to work on. It's not a SPECIFIC plan like 117 airplanes at this carrier, 54 airplanes at the other carrier, etc but more a generic plan and strategy.
There is no movement at eagle because as we shrink we are flowing and attriting people from all ranks while not hiring YET havent furloughed anyone.
Once we reach the size they want us to (68 145s + 40 175s = 108 or ~1500 pilots) the flow will finally cause movement and lower upgrade time, especially as growth at other carriers stops (PSA namely) they will stop acting as a pilot magnet. This has been the plan all along to have envoy act as the direct entry method to AA all the way from cradle to grave - you sign up as a pipeline instructor, you instruct, go to envoy, go to AA. All on 1 interview.
Again, this is not a 6 month plan - this is the 10 year plan so no, no one here will ever see a "fast" upgrade so I guess my entire point is moot.
I have to disagree with this and see it as wishful thinking. It's predicated on the assumption that at some magical point management will be able to match attrition with attraction. Whatever the number, attrition is only likely to remain constant, if not even increase. Can Envoy at whatever point say at 1500 pilots, suddenly attract and graduate 60/month ?
There simply aren't that number in the new-hire pipeline and you can forget about poaching other regionals to any meaningful degree. No, I foresee the inability to stem the shrinking pilot loss equation at the numbers they may want and thus as the pilot group shrinks too fast and too early, they'll have to react and there will be few good options then for Envoy pilots at least. They'll hit whatever number, but then despite their efforts the deficit will grow greater each month from the inability to replace lost pilots until they start losing market share and then they will act. There is a likely bright spot of delaying that for them. Here at AA, the flow is likely to slow to a trickle or even stop for awhile as hundreds of deferred furloughees return (there are over 1000) over the next year or so as they get 2 years extra LOS if they commit by mid February pending ratification of the present TA and the combination of divisions along with PBS requires as many as 1500 (or more) less pilots to fly the present schedule (no expansion slated till at least 2018) and it all evens out at the rate of retirements. The bottom line, AA may need very few pilots from either the street or flow thru for many months, perhaps even 18 due to furlough returns and scheduling efficiencies mitigating retirements until it balances and that could be awhile. That would be 20 less list to AA each month, but would likely only result in more aggressive outside attrition as impatient Envoy pilots take a better deal elsewhere as at least it's something real as opposed to a hypothetical promise from ethically bankrupt managers and executives with a long history of making promises only to break them later.
Good luck with your hopes for Envoy, but ultimately I see a major haircut, especially with so many 18-year $120,000/year hippies.