Originally Posted by eaglefly

I have to disagree with this and see it as wishful thinking. It's predicated on the assumption that at some magical point management will be able to match attrition with attraction. Whatever the number, attrition us only likely to remain constant, if not even increase. Can Envoy at whatever point say at 1500 pilots, suddenly attract and graduate 60/month ?

There simply aren't that number in the new-hire pipeline and you can forget about poaching other regionals to any meaningful degree. No, I foresee the inability to stem the shrinking pilot loss equation at the numbers they may want and thus as the pilot group shrinks too fast and too early, they'll have to react and there will be few good options then for Envoy pilots at least. They'll hit whatever number, but the deficit will grow greater each month from the inability to replace lost pilots until they start losing market share. There is a likely bright spot of delaying that for them. Here at AA, the flow is likely to slow to a trickle or even stop for awhile as hundreds of deferred furloughees return (there are over 1000) over the next year or so as they get 2 years extra LOS if they commit by mid February pending ratification of the present TA and the combination of divisions along with PBS requires as many as 1500 (or more) pilots to fly the present schedule (no expansion slated till at least 2018) and it all even out at the rate of retirements. The bottom line, AA may need very few pilots from either the street or flow thru for many months, perhaps even 18.

Good luck with your hopes for Envoy, but ultimately I see a major haircut, especially with so many 18-year $120,000/year hippies.