Did some number crunching/prognostication for some friends and figured I'd share here, since many of you are trying to foretell the future and decide your priorities on new-hire aircraft.

Taking a look at the latest forecasts, here's roughly what a June 2014 hire would stand one year later at the end of June 2015.

For the "would I have a line?" question: as a rough rule, Crew Services tries to keep about 20% of the category on reserve, so if you are 80% or better, you can hold a line solidly. Since some senior folks bid reserve, you may be able to hold a line significantly earlier.


ATL
•7ER: 514/617 (83%)
•73N: 235/295 (80%)
•320: 100/152 (66%)
•M88: 389/577 (67%)
•717: 187/258 (72%)


CVG:
•M88: 50/53 (94%)
•DTW:
•7ER: 133/152 (88%)
•73N: 84/93 (90%)
•320: 148/146 (ASSISTANT TO THE DEPUTY PLUG)
•717: 41/53 (77%)

LAX:
7ER: 190/194 (ASSISTANT TO THE DEPUTY PLUG)
73N: 77/88 (88%)

MSP:
•7ER: 137/138 (DEPUTY PLUG)
•M88: 211/211 (PLUG)

NYC
•7ER: 275/421 (65%)
•73N: 70/156 (45%)
•320: 43/152 (28%)
•M88: 35/159 (22%)
•717: 7/139 (5%... DANG, SKIPPY!)

SLC
•7ER: 102/105 (ASSISTANT TO THE DEPUTY PLUG)
•73N: 82/89 (92%)
•320: 118/143 (82%)

Of course, 2015 movement will look different than 2014, but some stuff to consider since airline pilots never, ever overthink stuff.