Originally Posted by eaglefly

There are indeed about 1000 AA pilots on deferred status to return from furlough. However, the TA that will either be ratified or rejected (most likely ratified) on Jan 30. If so, that does not require a furloughed pilot to return immediately. They may continue that status until May 2016, so a ratification will not likely mean an IMMEDIATE influx of deferees returning. Some will, but many of those who are choosing to return may indeed wait until at or close to the last minute, depending on their situation. I'd say perhaps half or about 500 (give or take 75 or so) will return.

Any flow/street hiring impact now or throughout 2015 will be driven by internal training logjams and not external contractual issues like PBS, combining International/Domestic, etc. THOSE more significant issues are likely to snowball throughout 2016 starting about Spring. I'd still believe at least 200 AE 824's will flow in 2015 and perhaps 20-40 more. Maybe some in early 2016, but then I'd look for a significant chance for outright cessation of "new-hires" as the scheduling factors combined with returning furloughees concurrently kick in. I think you might see a "hiccup" or two this year. Not sure how many 824's are left, but if you're more then 250-300 back, your odds of significant delay are substantially increased.

Just my .02........